Behavorial Economics Solution to the Afghan Problem
This entry was posted on 8/19/2009 11:30 AM and is filed under uncategorized.
The problem in Afghanistan and Iraq is a marketing
problem not a military, development or political problem. My simple point is
that democracy and good governance for people in different countries is, for
many reasons, not a natural option. It has to be sold like anything else.
In Afghanistan the Taliban have a natural advantage. They
are Muslims, local and for the most part, members of the majority tribe, the
Pashtuns. They also have better marketing through local mosques.
We have only countered this with military occupation and
an ineffective local government that loses 70% through corruption.
I have read in the FT that insurgency doctrine would
require 200,000 troops to deal with the problem. We have 120,000 and that is
more than the Russians had. So a military solution may not be available.
It is doubtful the government in Kabul will be less
corrupt. Why should they be? They have large economic incentives to make money
while it is available. For them this is a once in a life time deal.
There is a way. In Pakistan, the Taliban made a bold move
in occupying most of the Swat valley. The Pakistani army was able to throw them
out, but their most effective weapon was not long range artillery. It was video
footage of a 17-year old girl being flogged by an Islamist militant for being
caught in the company of an unrelated man. The video enraged the rest of the
country and helped provide political support for driving the Taliban out of the
Swat valley.
From what I read there are millions of cell phones now in
Afghanistan. I have also read that the penetration of television in the cities
is 85% and they love Indian soap operas. Soap operas have been successfully
used in Mexico and Ethiopia to change behavior.
There are also very popular conservative Islamic clerics
with a global reach. They may not share western values, but they are against
violent Jihadists, which is all we want for a stable government that does not
support the Taliban.
Besides TV and cell phones, we could also distribute
those wind-up portable radios and distribute those to villages that do not have
electricity.