Emerging Market Strategies

William Gamble

Estimate of Chinese toxic assets

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This entry was posted on 7/3/2009 10:01 AM and is filed under uncategorized.

I can't prove it, no one can, but my bet is that 20 to 30% of these loans will go bad. This is on top of the hundreds of billions of toxic assets built up during the boom years and the base line of 900 billion estimated by Earnst and Young in 2005. If you add all this up you get a toxic debts of about $1.5 to 2 trillion

William Gamble

China '09 bank loans likely to top 10 trln yuan -paper

Thu Jul 2, 2009 8:01pm EDT

SHANGHAI, July 3 (Reuters) - New lending by Chinese banks is likely to exceed 10 trillion yuan ($1.46 trillion) this year, the Shanghai Securities News reported on Friday, even as bank regulators warned about risks from improper loans.

Combined yuan lending by China's big four state lenders, including Bank of China (601988.SS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), reached 497 billion yuan in June, with overall lending in the country exceeding 7 trillion yuan in the first half, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources and authoritative institutions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssBanks/idUSSHA27733320090703


 

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