Emerging Market Strategies

William Gamble

Confirmation of Problems with the Chinese Economy. Short term bubble then slow

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This entry was posted on 6/23/2009 10:09 AM and is filed under uncategorized.

For once it is not just me complaining about China. See the following from a former Columbia professor of economics now teaching in Beijing. I did not make this one up, but it is great to see an occasional confirmation.

 

William Gamble

 

The comparisons with China are, and of course are meant to be, a little worrying. This is not to say that China must repeat Japan’s spectacular 1990 crash and subsequent lost decade (or two). It is simply to point out that none of what we are seeing in China is particularly new and far from being a source of great strength, the intense manipulation of monetary and fiscal policies and the financial markets can actually make the necessary adjustment for China much more difficult. Just as Japan failed to come to terms with the sudden collapse of the US trade deficit and tried to export and monetize its way out, China may be doing something very similar.

 

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