Emerging Market Strategies

William Gamble

ICBC Myth of Chinese stocks particiapating in Chinese Growth

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This entry was posted on 10/8/2006 6:55 PM and is filed under Chinese Equity Investments.

If you compare the Shanghai composite index with the Sensex of the Bombay stock exchange you see something surprising. The Shanghai index goes up and down. The Sensex steadily rises. This should be a lesson, but it is lost on everyone including Lex. If an economy is growing, it means that someone is making money. It does not mean that an investor, especially a foreign investor will make money. If a stock in a government owned company was a proxy for China’s rapid growth, it should increase. It doesn’t.

 

If you believe that non performing loans have shrunk to 5 percent, I have bridge in Brooklyn for you. Earlier this year an Ernst & Young report that found non performing loans of an “eye-popping $358bn”. E&Y was not alone. The Financial Times reported that “E&Y drew similar conclusions to other independent consultants looking at Chinese non-performing loans, including those at PwC.” The FT also pointed out that the International Monetary Fund suggest that more NPLs were in the making. This time those NPLs will be made out of the proceeds of the ICBC IPO.

In 2000, the Chinese leadership promised that there would be no more "free lunches, not even a scrap". Yet the the bailouts continue. Like the Japanese, the government continues to use taxpayer money to bail out banks that follow its policies to lend money to inefficient firms. Unlike the Japanese, they are not subject to the will of an electorate who might force them to change.

 

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